Even though Twitter continues to add new users, its year over year growth is dropping according to a new report from eMarketer.
According to eMarketer’s first-ever forecast of global Twitter users, Twitter’s user base will increase by 24.4% in 2014. If that number ends up being accurate, that means Twitter’s annual growth will continue the declining pattern it has been on for the past couple of years.
An annual growth rate of 24.4% will be down from last year’s 30%, and 2012’s 50% growth rate. The report from eMarketer forecasts that Twitter’s annual growth will continue to decline into 2018.
Twitter’s growth in the US is expected to drop to 9% in 2015, down from the 19% growth it experienced last year. The majority of Twitter’s user growth over the next few years is expected to come from overseas.
If eMarketer’s estimates are accurate, the number of Twitter users would reach 227.5 million this year, 269.6 million in 2015, 310.2 million in 2016, 349.6 million in 2017, and 387 million in 2018.
Cnet points out that these numbers differ from Twitter’s own reported 225 million monthly active users, which Twitter said it reached last month. So, what accounts for the discrepancy?
eMarketer explains that their numbers aren’t counting business accounts and instances of multiple accounts:
Our figures differ from Twitter’s reported figure of 255 million monthly active users in 2013 because we rely heavily on consumer survey data to weed out business accounts, multiple accounts for individual users, and other sources of potential double-counting.
Twitter has acknowledged in the past that it has had trouble retaining users, and Wall Street has been disappointed with Twitter’s slower than expected user growth. Looking at these numbers, it seems that Twitter will have to do something major to keep from continuing down the path they’re on.
What do you think accounts for Twitter’s decline in user growth? Why is it having difficult acquiring new users, especially in the US? I’m interested to hear your thoughts.
